MCG Reports

BACKGROUND

Comparing Projection Architectures and Technologies

The emergence of the microdisplay rear-projection television has had a dramatic impact on the cost and performance of projection systems of all types. Increasing production volumes for projection components have driven down costs faster than before, and the competition between DLP, LCD and LCOS technologies has become increasingly dynamic. The 2005 version of the model now incorporates LED and laser illumination sources, which are the latest areas for experimentation and development of projection systems.

The MCG Projection System Cost Model contains a database of projection system components and allows the user to compare the costs and performance of a variety of system architectures and technologies using a flexible spreadsheet system over a five-year time horizon for two alternative scenarios simultaneously. System architectures can be changed year-to-year within a scenario.

WHO SHOULD BUY AND WHY

The cost model is a comprehensive tool for professionals in the industry at companies which build television and presentation projection systems, or companies that supply components.

• Business Development . The model can be used to look at current small volume and future high volume costs and optical performance for alternative projection designs.
• Marketing and Product Management. A detailed comparison of alternative technologies, sizes, and production volumes can be analyzed.
• Engineering and Technology . The trade offs in performance and price of alternative designs can be compared.

SCOPE AND QUESTIONS ADDRESSED

The model develops bills of materials and assembly and test costs for complete projection systems based on a consistent set of cost assumptions for the component parts based on a defined range of production volume assumptions. The model applies to an independent projection system integrator assuming that all major components and modules are purchased from manufacturers.

Component costs and performance, both current and projected for the future, are based on a comprehensive survey of industry experts.

Technology Scope. The following projection technologies are included:

• HTPS: High temperature poly silicon
• DMD: Digital Micromirror™ used in Digital Light Processing™
• LCOS: Liquid crystal on Silicon

Architecture Scope. The following projection architectures are included:

• 3 x HTPS: Three-imager High Temperature Polysilicon, also known as 3LCD
• 3 x DMD: Three-imager Digital Micromirror Device, also known as 3DLP
• 3 x LCOS: Three-imager Liquid Crystal on Silicon
• 1 x DMD: One-imager Digital Micromirror Device, also known as DLP
• 1 x LCOS: One-imager Liquid Crystal on Silicon
• A custom architecture defined by the user

Illumination System Scope. The following illumination options are selectable with different watt/lumen levels:

• High Pressure Mercury Lamp (HPM), also known as UHP type lamps
• Xenon Lamp
• Light-Emitting Diode (LED)
• Laser

Market Scope. Projectors designed for the following market segments are included:

• Ultraportable presentation projectors
• Desktop presentation projectors
• High-end Digital Cinema Projectors and boardroom projectors
• Rear projection televisions

Model Features. The model includes the following advanced features :

• Ability to model and compare two five-year scenarios simultaneously with built-in graphics and charts
• Production volume effects on component pricing
• Effect of supply shortages on key component group pricing
• Continuous cost functions which adjust component prices based on input parameters like display resolution and size
• Ability to easily identify input parameters you can adjust and tailor the model to your scenario and assumptions

CONTENTS

The cost model is delivered with user documentation and a Powerpoint graphic showing the interrelationships between the model worksheets. The Excel model can be operated simply through providing high-level assumptions on a single input worksheet for two comparable five-year scenarios. Alternatively, users can change the “industry expert consensus” data at five lower-level worksheets to tailor their scenarios to their own assumptions. Six worksheets comprise calculation engines which develop costs and associated optical performance. Three worksheets of analysis graphics and two reference worksheets round out the model. The links below provide views of the single input worksheet, a sample calculation engine, and typical graphics.

Link to sample formats (PDF file) These diagrams are from the 2005 PCM and are just being used as references for the 2006 PCM

METHODOLOGY

Users define the architecture, production volume, pixel counts, pixel column/row spacing, screen size and other fundamental parameters for each year of five years for two different scenarios. The model develops the bill of material for each year’s architecture and costs it using expert pricing forecasts. Users can easily model the effect of shortages of key components on costs with shortage toggles. Low and high-volume pricing is provided separately. Detailed costs and optical performance are developed for each imager and optics engine.

Continuous cost functions are embedded to the maximum degree to allow modeling of what-if scenarios incorporating components such as imagers and lamps which do not presently exist today.

Wherever the consensus of industry experts forecast a technology or performance improvement, this has also been incorporated in future years. Expert consensus on expected component price trends for the next five years are incorporated.

All input fields are clearly marked and can be adjusted by the user without compromising the integrity of the model. User can modify the system architectures provided if they wish.

FORMAT

Excel workbook with 18 worksheets, including an initial worksheet for the index. Information is parsed in each worksheet to facilitate presentation of data by users. User documentation in Word and Powerpoint.

USER SUPPORT

Available from the model’s author via phone or e-mail.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

The model has been developed with extensive technical and analytical support. Originally developed by Charles McLaughlin, Felix Schuda, Matthew Bone with help from Ed Stupp, the model has been enhanced by input from Dave Armitage. The model was completely repackaged in 2004 by Steve Marsland to provide five-year modeling capability and to incorporate pricing and technology trends based on the consensus of 12 industry experts surveyed.

For more information contact Steve Marsland stevemarsland@mcgweb.com 650 588-7558

SUBSCRIPTION

Subscribers: The spreadsheet model is available at $5,000 for a single site license. The enhanced and updated 2006 edition is now available.

ORDER INFORMATION

To order use our online order form, you may also fax a copy to us (PDF) or contact Adrienne Hefter, info@mcgweb.com, telephone 650 323 1179. MCG office hours are 9-12 and 1-5 PST.