McLaughlin Consulting Group - Human Factors | Microdisplays

MCG Reports

The Fast Track for LEDs into Large-Area LCDs:
Leveraging Consumer Valuation of LED Features
Principal Researchers and Analysts: Steve Marsland, Steve Jurichich (PhD)
and Carl Cobb
234 pages
August 27, 2007
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Table of Contents

1	Executive Summary			3
2	Summary of Findings and Recommendations			8
	2.1	Findings		8
	2.2	Summary of Cost, Consumer Value, Risk and Market Share Growth by Application		10
	2.3	Recommendations		12
		2.3.1	For LED makers	12
		2.3.2	For LCD Panel and End-Product Makers	13
3	LEDs: The Long-Term LCD Lighting Solution			15
	3.1	LED improvements create an immediate window of opportunity to market to consumers		16
		3.1.1	Haitz’s Law	16
	3.2	Cost improvement		22
	3.3	Fast Track for LEDs must leverage perception of consumer value by application		26
	3.4	Synergy with other technologies and applications will accelerate the conversion		26
		3.4.1	Synergy with LEDs in architectural lighting	26
		3.4.2	Trends in optical films	27
		3.4.3	Fast switching LCDs	27
4	Consumer value modeling – the fast track			28
	4.1	The fast track for LEDs		28
	4.2	Potential for a Five Year Delay for LEDs		28
	4.3	Summary of Consumer Value Modeling Approach		28
		4.3.1	What display improvements will consumers pay for?	29
		4.3.2	Which of these improvements can LEDs deliver?	29
		4.3.3	What level of improvement can each LED architecture deliver?	30
		4.3.4	What is the cost for each LED architecture vs. CCFL?	30
		4.3.5	What is each improved feature worth to consumers?	31
		4.3.6	What is the consumer perception of risk?	32
		4.3.7	How much faster will market share grow if the feature is priced lower?	32
		4.3.8	How much more will consumers pay for the feature package for each LED architecture?	33
		4.3.9	Which LED architecture offers the best value for each market segment?	33
		4.3.10	What consumer price premium offers fastest profitable growth?	34
		4.3.11	What is the overall fast track for LEDs?	34
	4.4	Analytic Framework		34
		4.4.1	Consumer perceived value and relative value/price	36
		4.4.2	Consumer perceived risk	40
		4.4.3	Switching costs	43
		4.4.4	Consumer new product adoption dynamics	44
		4.4.5	Varying the Actual Price Premium	48
		4.4.6	Deriving Actual Consumer Value Functions and Perceived Risk for Display Features	51
	4.5	Features		51
		4.5.1	High Dynamic Range/Contrast	51
		4.5.2	Higher color gamut	51
		4.5.3	“Green” - exceeds environmental regulation requirements	52
		4.5.4	Thickness	52
		4.5.5	Weight	52
		4.5.6	Screen Size	52
		4.5.7	Definition	53
	4.6	Satisficers		53
		4.6.1	Battery Life	53
		4.6.2	Brightness	53
		4.6.3	Brightness Uniformity	53
		4.6.4	Color uniformity	53
		4.6.5	Absence of Flicker	54
		4.6.6	Wide Viewing Angle	54
		4.6.7	Reducing Motion Blur	54
		4.6.8	Sufficient Lifetime	54
		4.6.9	Environmental regulation compliance	54
5	46” TVs			55
	5.1	Technology Performance Forecast		55
		5.1.1	Cost	55
		5.1.2	Higher Color Gamut	57
		5.1.3	Contrast Ratio	58
		5.1.4	Thickness	61
		5.1.5	Optical Films	61
	5.2	Consumer Value		63
		5.2.1	Summary of Findings	63
		5.2.2	Higher Color Gamut	65
		5.2.3	High Dynamic Range/Contrast	66
		5.2.4	Depth/Thickness	68
		5.2.5	Weight	69
		5.2.6	Value of Feature Package	69
6	32” TVs			77
	6.1	Technology Performance Forecast		77
		6.1.1	Cost	77
		6.1.2	Higher color gamut	80
		6.1.3	High Dynamic Range/Contrast	81
		6.1.4	Thickness/depth	83
		6.1.5	Optical Films	84
	6.2	Consumer Value		85
		6.2.1	Summary of Findings	85
		6.2.2	Higher Color Gamut	87
		6.2.3	High Dynamic Range/Contrast	89
		6.2.4	Depth/Thickness	92
		6.2.5	Weight	93
		6.2.6	Value of Feature Package	94
7	Portable Notebooks			101
	7.1	Technology Performance Forecast		101
		7.1.1	Cost Projections	101
		7.1.2	Higher Color Gamut	106
		7.1.3	Static and Dynamic Contrast Ratio	108
		7.1.4	Thickness	109
		7.1.5	Weight	110
		7.1.6	Optical Films	115
	7.2	Consumer Value		116
		7.2.1	Summary of Findings	117
		7.2.2	Higher Color Gamut	119
		7.2.3	High Dynamic Range/Contrast	120
		7.2.4	Depth/Thickness	122
		7.2.5	Weight	123
		7.2.6	Value of Feature Packages – Data-Only Use Segment	124
		7.2.7	Value of Feature Packages – Dual Use Segment	128
8	Desktop Replacement Notebooks			134
	8.1	Technology Performance Forecast		134
		8.1.1	Cost	134
		8.1.2	Higher color gamut	136
		8.1.3	High Dynamic Range/Contrast	137
		8.1.4	Thickness/depth	139
		8.1.5	Optical Films	140
	8.2	Consumer Value		141
		8.2.1	Summary of Findings	141
		8.2.2	Higher Color Gamut	142
		8.2.3	High Dynamic Range/Contrast	144
		8.2.4	Depth/Thickness	145
		8.2.5	Weight	146
		8.2.6	Value of Feature Package – Data-only Use	146
		8.2.7	Value of Feature Package – Dual Use	151
9	Monitors			158
	9.1	Technology Performance Forecast		158
		9.1.1	Cost	158
		9.1.2	Higher color gamut	160
		9.1.3	Static and Dynamic Contrast Ratio	161
		9.1.4	Thickness/depth	163
		9.1.5	Optical Films	164
	9.2	Consumer Value		165
		9.2.1	Summary of Findings	165
		9.2.2	Higher Color Gamut	166
		9.2.3	High Dynamic Range/Contrast	169
		9.2.4	Depth/Thickness	170
		9.2.5	Weight	171
		9.2.6	Value of Feature Package – Data-only Use	171
		9.2.7	Value of Feature Package – Dual Use	172
10	Field Sequential Color – A Wild Card			178
	10.1	FSC Overview		178
	10.2	Field Sequential Color Technical Issues		179
		10.2.1	Flicker	179
		10.2.2	Color Break-Up	179
		10.2.3	Light Transmission	180
		10.2.4	Gray Scale	183
	10.3	Improvements in switching speed for LCDs		183
	10.4	Projected FSC feasibility point		186
11	The Fast Track for LEDs			186
	11.1	Fast Track Forecast for LEDs		186
		11.1.1	Overall Demand Forecast for Large Area LCD displays	186
		11.1.2	Notebooks	189
		11.1.3	Monitors	197
		11.1.4	TVs	197
		11.1.5	Aggregate forecast	200
	11.2	Implied forecast of demand for optical films		203
12	Growth Implications of Pricing			205
13	Summary			208
	13.1	Five years are at stake		208
	13.2	Strategic recommendations		208
		13.2.1	For LED makers	208
		13.2.2	For LCD Panel and End-Product Makers	209
14	Appendix A – Overview of High Dynamic Range (HDR) Levels			211
15	Appendix B – Overview of Key Regression Analyses			215
16	Appendix C – Consumer Valuation Methodology Explained in Detail for Color Gamut			217

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