MCG Reports
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BACKGROUND
Total Demand for Microdisplays Will Exceed $4B in 2008, Could Top $6B
Fueled by rapidly growing demand for microdisplays in RPTV applications, total global sales of microdisplays will grow from about $1.2B in 2003 to at least $4B in 2008. And if optimistic assumptions about microdisplay RPTV sales pan out, microdisplay sales could top $6B. Total demand includes demand for microdisplays for home entertainment, presentation, EVF and personal display markets.
Demand for microdisplays for RPTV could vary widely, and in order to capture this potential variation MCG has developed two alternative forecast scenarios for home entertainment applications. In the Optimistic Case 22M RPTV units are sold in 2008. In the Conservative Case only 11M RPTVs are sold. This variable demand is then added to the forecast for the other three segments (presentation, EVF and personal displays) to develop two overall forecast scenarios for microdisplays.
Sales are also forecasted to grow briskly in the presentation, EVF and personal display (headset) marketplaces as price reductions and performance improvements in microdisplays make them increasingly attractive in other applications. As microdisplay prices decline, the end devices that incorporate microdisplays become increasingly attractive to consumers, driving further unit growth.
“The explosion of demand for home entertainment MD RPTVs underpins dramatic cost declines that we are forecasting for microdisplays across the board”, reports Steve Marsland, principal researcher and author of the study Microdisplay Forecast Report 2004, published by McLaughlin Consulting Group (MCG). “And these dramatic cost declines fuel fast unit growth, outpacing price declines. The result is a significant increase in sales.”
TOTAL OVERHAUL OF REPORT FORMAT AND CONTENT IN 2004
The format and content of the report has been dramatically improved based on feedback from prior purchasers. For the first time, forecast of microdisplay demand by definition is included, along with pricing by definition for both color and monochrome microdisplays. Crisp and clear graphs have been adopted throughout the report, supplemented by tables and targeted bullet text. Discussion is brief and succinct. Over 120 pages of analysis based on crisp color graphs make up the bulk of the report. Company profiles have been streamlined to two pages and company data is now presented in easy-to-understand graphical or table formats. “Radar screens” on key performance metrics array all microdisplay competitors on the same page, making comparisons simple.
WHO SHOULD BUY AND WHY
The report is a comprehensive tool for marketing and supply chain professionals to understand the timing and scope of emerging opportunities and develop their company’s response to those opportunities:
- Microdisplay makers – Understand the total picture of demand for microdisplays by market segment, including unit sales by definition and forecast ASPs by definition
- Buyers of microdisplays – Project cost declines and understand cost and performance trends in microdisplays through 2008. Evaluate technology and architecture alternatives for long-term use.
- Microdisplay-related component suppliers – Unit and system forecasts provide the basis to develop forecasts for components used in, or sold along with, microdisplays
SCOPE AND QUESTIONS ADDRESSED
The study covers all demand for microdisplays globally through 2008. All relevant technologies are addressed. Two alternative scenarios (Optimistic and Conservative) are completely evaluated. Drill-down is provided into microdisplay costs and technology shares. The study addresses questions such as:
- How will prices and unit volumes trend over time for microdisplays by definition?
- What are the emerging opportunities for microdisplays?
- How fast will market share shift into higher definition displays?
- How will the technology alternatives (LCOS, HTPS, DMD) fare over time?
- What is the overall prospect for microdisplays in each major application area?
- What is driving growth for microdisplays by market?
- What are the key optics architectures incorporating microdisplays and which architectures will succeed?
- How will the key suppliers (TI, Epson) react to the emerging opportunities?
- What are the prospects for LCOS technology to take share?
Technology Scope. The following microdisplay technologies are included:
- LCOS: Liquid crystal on silicon
- HTPS: High temperature polysilicon
- DMD: Digital Micromirror Device
- LTPS: Low temperature polysilicon
- Laser Beam-Scan
- OLED
Market Scope.
- Home entertainment
- Presentation projectors
- EVFs and embedded near-eye displays
- Personal displays (headsets)
CONTENTS
The study is 120 pages of text, graphical and table analysis with 50 pages of company profiles, totaling 170 pages and includes:
- Overview of Optimistic and Conservative scenarios for Home Entertainment
- Demand overview for presentation, EVF and personal displays
- Forecast pricing and total unit sales on microdisplays by definition and monochrome/color
- Sales forecast of the derived market in dollars terms for microdisplays by technology (DMD, HTPS, LCOS, Beam-scan, OLED)
- Summary high-level snapshot of all microdisplay products presently being sold
- Company profiles for major/notable microdisplay makers including product line overview by technology with key performance parameters
METHODOLOGY
The MCG study is based on a combination of sources, including surveys of industry experts and manufacturers, presentations at Infocomm 2004, HDTV Forum and CEDIA including forecasts from six industry consulting firms, and public information sources. Costs for microdisplays were developed from MCG’s proprietary Projector Cost Model, just updated this summer based on inputs from 12 industry experts about forward pricing on microdisplays and microdisplay components (see elsewhere on this website for description of the Projector Cost Model). All information was then evaluated with full analysis of recent industry, market and technology trends to develop the forecasts.
FORMAT
Printed report and .pdf file.
SUPPORT FOR PURCHASERS OF REPORT
Available from the study’s principal researcher, Steve Marsland (contact info shown below).
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
The report been developed with extensive technical and analytical support. Steve Marsland was the principal researcher and analyst. Charles McLaughlin acted as senior author and final editor.
For more information contact: Steve Marsland stevemarsland@mcgweb.com 650 588-7558
SUBSCRIPTION
| Subscription Type | Includes | Price |
| Multi-user, Single-site License | 1 pdf file, site license | $5,000 |
| Other | On-site presentation, consulting services | Ask for quote |
ORDER INFORMATION
To order use our online order form, you may also fax a copy to us (PDF) or contact Adrienne Hefter, info@mcgweb.com, telephone 650 323 1179. MCG office hours are 9-12 and 1-5 PST.
OTHER RELATED MCG STUDIES
Home Entertainment: Opportunity Analysis and Forecast 2004 Detailed forecast focused on all home entertainment applications, including rear and front projection TV, covering 5 technology screen size battlegrounds and including forecasts for LCD, PDP, CRT and RP CRT, as well as detailed forecasts for LCOS, HTPS and DMD in this market. Includes 29 profiles on major US TV branders and integrators.
Personal Displays: Opportunity Analysis and Forecast 2004 Detailed forecast focused on all personal display (headset) applications, specifically evaluating the emerging Personal TV, Viewer Headset and Sports Helmet Navigator applications. Includes 26 profiles on companies making personal displays.